A Country-Level Study of Exposure to Battery Price Fluctuations through Trade Networks

Andrea Bastianin, Ilenia Gaia Romani, Luca Rossini, and Marco Zoso

September 2025

This study examines the impact of critical raw materials (CRMs) and their processed derivatives on countries’ exposure to lithium-ion battery price fluctuations. Specifically, we investigate how a country’s position within the global trade network of CRMs and batteries influences the volatility of its terms-of-trade (TOT) for batteries. To this end, we construct a new country-level TOT price index for batteries and a series of network indicators at the country and supply chain levels. Using a panel regression framework covering up to 150 countries over 21 years, we analyze how these indicators affect exposure to price volatility. Our results show that the volatility-network relationship is conditional on both the stage of the supply chain and the direction of trade. Export diversification and network centrality play a limited role, whereas import dependence, especially on processed materials and batteries, emerges as the key driver of vulnerability.

JEL Codes: E3, F14, Q37, Q02, Q4.

Keywords: Critical Raw Materials, Battery Price, Exposure, Trade Networks.