Non-Economic Matters Involved in Future Nuclear Deployment

John Deutch

June 2026

In Dubai at the 2023 COP, thirty-three nations, including the United States, pledged to increase the deployment of nuclear power by a factor of three by 2050.  There are approximately 440 nuclear reactors operating across the globe today, which imply approximately 1300 reactors in use by 2050.  Many motivations lie behind this initiative: nations generally believe greater energy will be required to power a growing economy, that the global fuel mix will shift from fossil fuels to electricity; and the electricity footprint will expand as poorer nations gain access to electricity.  Of course, the pace of the nuclear deployment will depend on the complex interactions of economic and market mechanisms.  In recent years the pace of nuclear deployment has slowed in the United States and most OECD countries, but for the reasons mentioned above, a renaissance is expected.

The attention of the public and its leaders will understandably focus on economic and energy market conditions, international trade and diplomatic relations among nations.  Nuclear energy like other global socio-economic topics such as health care or agriculture involve important subjects that are only loosely linked to economic and market conditions but can become major determinants of the outcomes of public policy initiatives.

The purpose of this brief essay is to identify four areas that have such collateral effect on a nuclear energy economy with potentially decisive consequences:

1. nuclear accidents;

2. nuclear waste management;

3. fuel cycle technology; and

4. proliferation issues: enrichment (U₂₃₅) and reprocessing (Pu₂₃₉).

Therefore, those working on econometric modeling of nuclear power growth need to be cognizant of the influence of a broader range of issues.