Air Pollution and Internal Migration in the United States

Michael Keller, Christopher R. Knittel, Benjamin Krebs, and Simon Luechinger

September 2026

We estimate the effect of PM2.5 pollution on migration between commuting zones in the United States from 2005-2019. To account for the correlation between origin and destination commuting zones’ pollution levels and potential endogeneity, we estimate a dyadic migration model and isolate permanent changes in origin and destination pollution emanating from distant coal-fired power plants. Annual panel and long-difference estimates indicate that air pollution plays a key role in relocation decisions. For the typical commuting zone, an isolated average 2005-2019 PM2.5 concentration decrease of 3.85 μg/m3 would avert out-migration and increase in-migration, totaling 2 percent of the population annually.

JEL Codes: Q53, R23