The Long-Run Evolution of Energy Prices

Robert S. Pindyck

The Energy Journal, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 1-27, 1999

Robert S. Pindyck, The Energy Journal, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 1-27, 1999

Abstract, as published:

In this paper I examine the long-run behavior of oil, coal, and natural gas prices, using up to 127 years of data, and address the following questions: What does over a century of data tell us about the stochastic dynamics of price evolution, and how it should be modelled? Can models of reversion to stochastically fluctuating trend lines help us forecast prices over horizons of 20 years or more? And what do the answers to these questions tell us about investment decisions that are dependent on prices and their stochastic evolution?

Posted with permission from the International Association for Energy Economics.

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